Renewable Energy Potential in Bulgaria

There were several studies on the potential for renewables in Bulgaria which show that the potential is considerable (see the table below). However, in the National Long-term Programme for the Promotion of Renewable Energy Sources (2005-2015), the evaluation of the accessible potential for energy generation from renewables is less optimistic. The authors of this programme consider that the total accessible potential for energy generation from all renewables in the country is about 6 Mtoe which according to them in 2015 will be only 38% of the total final consumption, if all the accessible potential is used. This will come mainly from hydro energy and biomass.

Table 3: Potential of renewable energy in Bulgaria

Source	Indicator	Solar [Mtoe]	Wind [Mtoe]	Biomass [Mtoe]	Hydro below 10 MW [Mtoe]	Large hydro [Mtoe]	Geother mal [Mtoe]	Total [Mtoe]
ESD and Ecotherm - Engineering Ltd. 1997	Total resource available	13000	75	1159	371		336	14941
	Theoretical potential	0.013	75 (?)	03.06.2008	0.122	2.002	0.326	81
Simeonova et al. 1996	Total	14703	10	05.05.2003	01.08.2008	N/A	-	25458
	Accessible	8169	5357	-	-	N/A	-	13526
	Reserve	18.04.2008	01.08.2002	0.4	1	N/A	0.003	22
National long term program on promotion of RES 2005-2015	Accessible potential	0.390	0.283	01.02.1970	2.282		0.350	6.005

In the same National programme on the promotion of RES, the following estimations for the electricity generation from RES (RES-e) are provided:

Generation of electricity from RES:	until 2010		until 2015
	GWh	Ktoe	GWh	ktoe
Biomass (incl. biogas)	418	36.0	849	73.0
Hydro power (incl. large)	2976	256.0	2988	257.0
Wind energy	8	0.7	256	22
Photovoltaics	7	0.6	43	03.07.2008
Geothermal Energy	15	01.03.2008	30	02.06.2008
TOTAL:	3426	294.6	4166	358.3
Increase compared to 2002	56% or 6% annually		90% or 6% annually

The current trend shows stagnation in the share of RES in electricity generation at about 7-8%. It is expected that with the increased consumption this trend will not be significantly changed. For hydro energy it is expected that its share will decrease. The biggest contribution for increased RES-E is expected to come from biomass, including 50ktoe from wood, 10ktoe from pulp and paper residues, 7ktoe from landfill gas, and 6ktoe from straw. According to the evaluation the share of geothermal and photovoltaics will remain negligible.

Source: access-ret.net/info/pdfs/biomass_development.pdf